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October 31, 2006:
Three Palestinian terrorists are killed during an IDF counter-terrorist operation in Gaza. - IDF forces fire at terrorists attempting to plant a bomb near Khan Yunis. - PA sources claim Israeli naval boats fire at two Palestinian vessels. The IDF clarifies that only warning shots were fired. - Palestinian terrorists fire four Qassam rockets at Israel. ("Third Terrorist Dies, 6 wounded in IDF Maneuver," IsraelNationalNews, October 31, 2006; Hillel Fendel, "Minor Military Operation Underway in Gaza," IsraelNationalNews, October 31, 2006). October 31, 2006:
Ha'aretz reports that the Bush administration has undertaken efforts to arm and train the Presidential Guard of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas in preparation for a potentially violent confrontation with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. According to information received in Jerusalem, the American security coordinator in the territories, General Keith Dayton, appeared before representatives of the Quartet in London last week and presented them with a program for bolstering the Palestinian presidential guard. The program calls for Egyptian, British and perhaps even Jordanian instructors to train the force loyal to Abbas. However, Palestinian sources note that training of a "Special Presidential Guard" began a month ago under the guidance of an American military instructor. The training is taking place in Jericho, at a compound near the InterContinental Hotel, and involves men from Force 17, an elite Fatah force traditionally assigned the protection of the Palestinian Authority Chairman. Apparently, 400 Force 17 troops have been involved in the training since August. Palestinian sources say that the training program is part of Dayton's recommended initiative for the reinforcement of Abbas' forces, and which involves the transfer of $2 million to set up the necessary training facilities. According to foreign press reports, the United States would like to see the number of men in Force 17 grow from approximately 3,500 to 6,000. Conscripts in the force range from 18 to 22, and undergo basic training for three months. Some are then selected for the Presidential Guard. (Aluf Benn and Avi Issacharoff, "U.S. Arming and Training PA Guard Against Hamas," Ha'aretz, October 31, 2006). October 31, 2006:
IDF forces apprehend two wanted Palestinian terrorists in Jericho. ("Terrorists Apprehended in Jericho," IsraelNationalNews, October 31, 2006). October 30, 2006:
An Egyptian security source announces that Cairo has lowered the security along its border with the Gaza Strip, two days after officials said the area along the Philadelphi Route had been fortified in case of a possible IDF operation against tunnels used for arms smugling. "The number of officers has been reduced after the Israeli threat has lessened...The border area was calm and no abnormal movement has been seen." An Egyptian source said Saturday that Egypt had stationed 5,000 additional security police along the Gaza border, to join the 750 troops already deployed. But Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak denied reports from his own government that extra forces had been deployed. "This is totally baseless." (Amos Harel, Yoav Stern and Avi Issacharoff, "Egyptian Official: Troop Level Back to Normal at Gaza Border," Ha'aretz, October 30, 2006). October 30, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists kidnap Roberto Vila, a Spanish aid worker from the Cooperation Assembly for Peace. Vila is forced into a yellow Skoda at the edge of the town of Khan Yunis, in the central Gaza Strip. He is later released unharmed. ("PA Officials: Spanish Aid Worker Abducted in Central Gaza Strip," Associated Press, October 29, 2006). October 30, 2006:
Palestinian terrrorists in northern Gaza fire a Qassam rocket that impacts south of Ashkelon. ("Kassam Rocket Attack," IsraelNationalNews, October 29, 2006). October 30, 2006:
"Disengagement: A Self-Imposed Strategic Disaster," is now available in PDF format. October 29, 2006:
- Palestinian terrorists fire Qassam rockets at Sderot and the western Negev, damaging a building and sending a woman into shock. At least one Qassam impacts near Kibbutz Netiv HaAsarah, just north of the Gaza border. - Israeli security forces intercept a Palestinian suicide bomber. Police had blocked highways and kept the Wadi Ara region near the N. West Bank border northeast of Tel Aviv on high terror alert. (Hillel Fendel, "Hundreds Demand Military Action as Kassams Continue to Fall," IsraelNationalNews, October 29, 2006; "Palestinian Suicide Bomber Intercepted on his Way to Israeli Target Sunday Night," DebkFile, October 29, 2006). October 29, 2006:
- Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz states that Egypt will not be deploying an additional 5,000 troops along its border with the Gaza Strip. "Beyond the 750 Egyptian border troops deployed in the area, there won't be any additions..." - The IDF assures Egypt that it will not use "smart bombs" to destroy underground smuggling tunnels in the Gaza region without prior coordination. (Amos Harel, Yoav Stern and Avi Issacharoff, "Israeli DM Peretz Denies Egyptian Plans to Deploy 5,000 Troops on Border with Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 29, 2006; "Israel Plays Down Report of 'Smart Bombs' In Gaza," IsraelNationalNews, October 29, 2006). October 29, 2006:
Egypt plans to increase its military presence by 5,000 along its border with the Gaza Strip in anticipation of a possible IDF counter-terrorist operation that could include bombing tunnels used for smugling weapons into Gaza. The additional 5,000 Egyptians are members of the police's central security force. "We are monitoring the situation with concern, but we have yet to receive an official warning from Israel regarding an upcoming operation..." An Israeli military source notes, "Anything that will take place along the Philadelphi Route will be reported to the Egyptian authorities in advance." ("Egyptian Security Sources: Patrol Along Gaza Border Doubled," Ha'aretz & Associated Press, October 29, 2006; "Egypt to Fortify Gaza Strip Border in Case IDF Attacks," Associated Press & Ha'aretz, October 29, 2006; Yusri Mohamed, "CORRECTED-Egypt Moves 5,000 Troops Near Gaza Border," Reuters, October 28, 2006). October 29, 2006:
- Israeli officials deliberate over Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas' request to grant Jordan-based Palestine Liberation Organization troops entry into the Gaza Strip. Abbas made his request two weeks ago, in hopes of bolstering his loyalist forces, as rival Palestinian terrorist groups (Hamas and Fatah) bolster their ranks in anticipation of a feared civil war. Israel has objected in the past to allowing members of the Jordan-based Badr Brigade enter Palestinian areas. The Badr Brigades are composed of several thousand Palestinians, mostly long-time PLO terrorists. - Police in blue-and-white camouflage uniforms deploy around the Gaza parliament building, and in the West Bank town of Ramallah, security personnel are posted outside parliament, the Prime Minister's office and the Education Ministry. - A coordinating committee for all Palestinian factions agreed to remove all their non-uniformed gunmen from the streets in an attempt to ease tensions. (Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel, "Israel May Allow PLO's Badr Brigade into Gaza," Ha'aretz , October 29, 2006). October 28, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists fire two Qassam rockets at the western Negev town of Sderot. (Avi Issacharoff and Mijal Grinberg, "Two Qassams Land in Sderot; 3 Militants Killed in West Bank," Ha'aretz, October 28, 2006). October 27, 2006:
Disengagement: A Self-Imposed Strategic Disaster Introduction: The Evolution of Unilateral Disengagement The concept of unilateral disengagement gained prominence during the January 2003 election campaign when Labor candidate Amir Mitzna proposed Israel unilaterally "separate" from the Palestinians if negotiations failed. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who had previously proclaimed the fate of Netzarim was the same as Tel Aviv, vehemently opposed Mitzna's plan, arguing that a withdrawal would simply reward Palestinian terror. However, in November 2003, Sharon told the Israeli daily Yediot Aharonot he had "been thinking for some time about unilateral steps that [would] make things easier on Israel and secure its interests." Media reports indicated the "unilateral steps" would include the evacuation of certain isolated settlements and the consolidation of others in the absence of successful negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. After much speculation, Sharon officially unveiled his "disengagement plan" at the 2003 Herzliya Conference. The plan envisioned the redeployment of IDF forces along "new security lines," and a "change in the deployment of settlements," that would "reduce as much as possible the number of Israelis located in the heart of the Palestinian population." Sharon also promised to "greatly accelerate the construction of the security fence," allowing the IDF "to remove roadblocks and ease the daily lives of the Palestinian population not involved in terror." US Support for Disengagement The US initially reacted to Sharon's announcement with trepidation, fearing that Israel was attempting to stray from the moribund "Road Map" agreed upon by the Quartet. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher emphasized that neither the Israelis or Palestinians could "find peace unilaterally," as it had "to be negotiated." White House spokesman Scott McClellan was even more blunt, declaring the US "would oppose any Israeli effort to impose a settlement." Yet, a significant policy shift was not long in coming. On April 14, 2004, President Bush endorsed Sharon's plan, calling it "courageous," and a step that "could lead to a peaceful, democratic, viable Palestinian state." In an effort to counter Israeli domestic opposition to the plan, Bush stated that any future peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians must take into account changing realities, including Israeli population centers in the West Bank. Bush also declared the problem of Palestinian refugees could only be solved by their "return" to a Palestinian state, rather than Israel. Unsurprisingly, the Sharon administration interpreted the above-mentioned statement and accompanying letter as American support for the retention of settlement blocs. However, Dr. Aaron Lerner notes that President Bush refrained from mentioning the term "settlement blocs," instead choosing the phrase "major Israeli population centers." According to Lerner, the U.S. considers "major Israeli populations centers" in the West Bank and east Jerusalem to be little more than legitimate "bargaining chips." Withdrawal: A Strategic Threat Following U.S. endorsement of the disengagement, Ze'ev Binyamin (Benny) Begin, son of the late prime minister Menachem Begin, broke a self-imposed political silence to criticize the plan, warning that its implementation would significantly increase terrorism. During a Channel Two television interview, Begin was asked: "There are so many former prime ministers and chiefs of staff and others who are certain that the disengagement plan is good. How can so many people be wrong?" Begin replied: "A decade ago there were so many former prime ministers and chiefs of staff and others who were certain about Oslo - and they were wrong." Bleak warnings were also issued by security officials. GSS (Shin Bet) chief Avi Dichter cautioned that Israel's planned unilateral disengagement would not have any affect on the Palestinians and predicted Israel might be forced to invade Gaza for a limited period after the withdrawal. Senior Hamas terrorist Mahmoud Al-Zahar confirmed that his organization would continue to attack Israeli targets until it secured an Israeli withdrawal from all "occupied territories." Despite the bleak predictions, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz recommended that Israel withdraw almost entirely from the Gaza Strip, while maintaining control over the Philadelphi route on the Rafah-Egypt border in the southern Strip to curtail weapons smuggling. Preparing for War: A Missile Front Against Israel By September 2004, senior Israeli security officials had determined that a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza would transform the Strip into a missile front against Israel, or a "south Lebanon to Israel's south." Nevertheless, Sharon, determined to adhere to his evacuation timetable, announced that he would retreat even under intensive fire, and demanded security officials prepare for such scenarios. In October, Ma'ariv published a detailed IDF planning document that listed 13 possible security threats that could occur following the disengagement from Gaza, including: *Rocket fire at western Negev kibbutzim *Attacks against IDF patrols along the fence *Kidnapping and holding soldiers inside Gaza *The entry of terrorists into Israel via underground tunnels, ladders or gliders *The acquisition of anti-aircraft missiles and long range rockets In addition, the plan stated the need to prepare for the possibility that the Gaza Strip would become "a terrorist entity where anarchy prevails." Homefront Command Warning In January 2005, IDF Homefront Command Colonel Uzi Buchbinder informed the Knesset Environmental Committee that the implementation of the Gaza disengagement plan would place 46 western Negev communities within the range of Qassam rockets launched from northern Gaza. Buchbinder also noted that the army has been developing a plan that would include the installation of an early warning system and safety glass on school windows. Colonel (res.) Mordechai Yogev of the National Security Forum emphasized that the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria would "bring numerous large population centers and communities within the range of Qassam rockets and mortar shells, including Ashkelon in the south and the cities of Beit She'an, Afula, Pardes Hannah and Hadera in the north." Former Military Intelligence Chief Shlomo Gazit warned an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza would transform the area into an armed camp that would become "an arsenal for independent development and production of arms." Gazit also emphasized that the exit from Gaza would be perceived as "a victory for the Palestinian armed struggle." Lieutenant General (res.) Moshe Ya'alon: "There is no doubt that the disengagement failed...It stems from the fact that underlying the disengagement was a baseless idea. It did not derive from a thorough strategic analysis but from political distress and from the personal distress of prime minister Ariel Sharon...The disengagement was a media spin. Those who initiated it and led it had no background in strategy, in security, in statesmanship or in history. They were image advisers...And what those people did was to place Israel into a virtual bubble divorced from reality by means of a huge media spin, which is now unraveling before our eyes." (Mark Heller, "Gaza Settlements: The Evolution of Ariel Sharon," International Herald Tribune, February 24, 2006; Yisrael Harel, "Not the End of an Era," Bitterlemons, January 9, 2006; Ellis Shuman, "Sharon Hints at 'Unilateral' Evacuation of Isolated Settlements," IsraelInsider, November 23, 2006; "Prime Minister's Speech at the Herzliya Conference," Ha'aretz, December 20, 2003; Ellis Shuman, "U.S. Warns Sharon Against Taking "Unilateral Steps," IsraelInsider, December 14, 2006; Ellis Shuman, "Sharon Presents his Plan of 'Disengagement' From Palestinians," IsraelInsider, December 19, 2003; "Bush recognizes Israeli Settlement Blocs, Rejects 'Right of Return,' IsraelInsider, April 14, 2004; Aaron Lerner, "Background: Bush 'Population Centers' vs. Israel 'Settlements,' IMRA, March 26, 2005; Ellis Shuman, "Benny Begin Breaks Silence to Attack Disengagement Plan," IsraelInsider, April 20, 2004; Ellis Shuman, "Hamas Vows to Continue Attacks Even After Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza,” IsraelInsider, June 13, 2004; Arik Bender, "Palestinians Developing Long-Range Artillery," Ma'ariv International, February 24, 2004; Aluf Benn, "Mofaz Advises PM to Withdraw Almost Entirely from Gaza," Ha'aretz, March 17, 2004; Aaron Lerner, "Background: Sharon Committed To Controlling Gaza Border But Clueless How," IMRA, March 29, 2004; "Advanced Weapons for Gaza Terrorists Turn Security Heads About Retreat," IsraelInsider, September 21, 2004; "IDF: After Disengagement Gaza Strip May Become 'A Terrorist Entity Where Anarchy Prevails,' Ma'ariv, translated by the JCPA Daily Alert and cited on IMRA; "Gaza Withdrawal will Place Dozens of Cities & Municipalities are Risk," IsraelNationalNews, January 12, 2005; Gideon Alon, "IDF official: Pullout to Expose 46 Negev Towns to Rocket Fire," Ha'aretz, January 12, 2005; "Shlomo Gazit On Retreat: Create Armed Camp Threatening Israel," Ma'ariv International, February 9, 2004, as cited on IMRA; Ari Shavit, "A Matter of Opinion," Ha'aretz Magazine, July 7, 2006). October 26, 2006:
Hamas is making massive weapons purchases, raising the price of Kalashnikov rifles in the West Bank. The terrorist group is also trying to smuggle arms from Egypt and Jordan. In addition, it is trying to persuade Fatah security service members to desert to Hamas. Thus far, Hamas has apparently succeeded in organizing a few hundred armed men in several West Bank cities, including Hebron. (Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, "Israel Sabotaging Hamas Bid to Set Up West Bank Security Force," Ha'aretz, October 26, 2006). October 26, 2006:
Scenario Projection October 26, 2006:
An IDF reserve soldier sustains moderate injuries from Palestinian gunfire during a counter-terror operation in southern Gaza. ("Soldier Moderately Injured in Gaza Counter-Terror Operation," IsraelNationalNews, October 26, 2006). October 26, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists moderately injure an Israeli driver in the West Bank, north of Hebron. (Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, "Israeli Hurt in W. Bank Shooting; Three Palestinians Killed in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 26, 2006). October 26, 2006:
Hamas' interior minister brings $2 million into the Gaza Strip in a new effort to flout international sanctions. According to a Palestinian official, the money would be used to make one-time $50 payments to 20,000 members of Palestinian security forces. A European Union official notes that Palestinian Interior Minister Saeed Seyam personally carried the money into Gaza last week, but that there was little the EU monitors at the Gaza-Egypt border crossing could do. ("PA Official: Hamas Interior Minister Brought $2 Million into Gaza," Associated Press, October 26, 2006). October 25, 2006:
A laser-based anti-missile system developed by Northrop-Grumman is slated for eventual deployment at Israeli air-fields and seaports. Northrop-Grumman representatives have also suggested deploying the system in densely populated areas and border towns. ("US-Made Laser Anti-Missile System to be Deployed at Ports," IsraelNationalNews, October 25, 2006). October 25, 2006:
The Shin Bet (GSS) thwarts an attempt early this week by Palestinian terrorists to smuggle six kilograms of explosive materials from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank city of Tulkarem. Shin Bet personnel discovered the six kilograms of TNT hidden in a cage - after the smugglers managed to transport the explosives past the heavily guarded Karni Crossing. (Amos Harel, "Shin Bet Foils Bid to Smuggle 6kg of TNT From Gaza to West Bank," Ha'aretz, October 25, 2006). October 25, 2006:
Fatah prepares for a major confrontation with Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the Muslim feast of Id al-Fitr. Palestinian sources claim that PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has instructed his loyalists in Fatah and the PA security forces to be prepared for a "major security operation" in the Gaza Strip in the coming days. "Thousands of Palestinian policemen and Fatah gunmen will be deployed in the streets of the Gaza Strip after the feast...The measure is designed to halt the anarchy in the Gaza Strip and to show Hamas that the PA leadership is determined to protect its representatives." (Khaled Abu Toameh, "Fatah Preparing Showdown with Hamas in Gaza Strip," Jerusalem Post, October 25, 2006). October 25, 2006:
Hamas plans to introduce its new security force in the West Bank. The force will be tasked with protecting the Hamas-controlled legislature as well as other government ministries targeted by Fatah in Ramallah. According to (Hamas) PA Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar, "We will increase their numbers over and over, and they will spread through the West Bank so the parliament building is not attacked again..." The Hamas Executive Force was established in May 2006 in the Gaza Strip and is comprised of more than 6,000 soldiers. ("Hamas Plans to Expand Force in W Bank," Middle East Newsline, October 24, 2006). October 24, 2006:
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas orders the deployment of more than 20,000 (Fatah affiliated) security forces, including para-militaries and police, throughout the Strip as soon as the holiday ends at the end of the week. One of Abbas' advisers claim that no such order has been issued, but several security forces commanders admit to Haaretz that the order exists. They added that the order is designed to convey a message to Hamas and restore Abbas' control over the Gaza Strip, even at the cost of a confrontation with Hamas' operations force, which has more than 5,000 soldiers. (Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, "Abbas Orders 20,000 Fatah Security Men to Deploy in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 24, 2006). October 24, 2006:
- Defense Minister Amir Peretz states that Israel will not reoccupy the Gaza Strip, but the IDF will continue to operate against weapons smuggling if needed. "We have no intention of reoccupying the Gaza Strip...We have no intention of remaining in the Gaza Strip. These operations are designed to reduce the areas from which Qassam rockets are fired and deal a blow to to arms smuggling through tunnels..."[The intent is to] deal with the immediate threats and the process of strengthening [of militant organizations] which is taking place. There is no military operation that will not be carried out, should we reach the conclusion that it is the way to defend the citizens of Israel...We will not allow Gaza to turn into southern Lebanon." - IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz notes that a military presence along the Philadelphi route is preferable to the absence of IDF forces in the area. Halutz also reveals that hundreds of arms-smuggling tunnels are being excavated along the Egypt-PA border. (Amos Harel, "Peretz: IDF Will Keep Operating Against Arms Smuggling in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 24, 2006; Amos Harel, "Halutz: Hundreds of Arms-Smuggling Tunnels Being Dug in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 24, 2006). October 24, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists kidnap an Associated Press photographer in the Gaza Strip, grabbing him as he walked out of his apartment and whisking him away in their vehicle. There is no immediate claim of responsibility. Emilio Morenatti, 37, the photographer, was heading out of his apartment for an AP car, where Majed Hamdan, an AP driver and translator, was waiting. Hamdan said four gunmen grabbed his keys and phone and told him to turn away, pressing a gun to his head and threatening to harm him if he moved. Then they grabbed Morenatti, shoved him into a white Volkswagen and drove off, Hamdan said. Emilio Morenatti is later released. ("Palestinian Gunmen Kidnap AP Photographer in Gaza Strip," Ha'aretz, October 24, 2006). October 24, 2006:
The IAF targets two rocket launchers used to fire rockets at Sderot from Beit Hanun in southern Gaza. (Josh Brannon, "Hebron: IDF Arrests 2 Men With Knives," Jerusalem Post, October 24, 2006). October 23, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists fire three Qassam rockets at Israel. One impacts in the city of Sderot, damaging two vehicles and causing a number of resident to go into shock. (Josh Brannon, "Kassam Lands in Sderot; Cars Damaged," IsraelNationalNews, October 23, 2006). October 23, 2006:
At least seven Palestinians are killed in a clash between terrorists and IDF forces in the northern Gaza Strip. Six of the seven dead men were armed and one was a senior member of the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC). According to the PRC, the target of the IDF operation appeared to be Ata Shindari, who led the group's rocket-launching branch. PRC spokesman Abu Abir vows revenge for Shimbari's death. "This is the calm before the storm," he told a news conference. (Amos Harel and Avi Issacharof, "PRC Vows Revenge as IDF Troops Kill 6 Gaza Gunmen," Ha'aretz, October 23, 2006). October 23, 2006:
IDF Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan D. Halevi assesses that the IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Route represents a strategic failure for the Israeli defense establishment - as weapons smuggling along the border continues unabated. WeaponSurvey presents a brief historical analysis of events leading up to the withdrawal. The Importance of the Philadelphi Route The importance of maintaining control of the Philadelphi corridor was illustrated in a paper written by Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror and David Keyes, in which they noted "the extent to which the Gaza Strip has unimpeded access to the outside world without Israeli security controls will determine whether a post-disengagement Gaza becomes a sanctuary for global terrorist groups like al-Qaeda." Prime Minister Sharon initially appeared to understand the necessity of retaining the Philadelphi route. Indeed, the revised disengagement plan obtained by Ha'aretz in May 2004 (ratified on June 6 by the Israeli Knesset) stipulated the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, including all Israeli settlements "with the exception of a military presence in the area adjacent to the border between Gaza and Egypt." Intimidating the Opposition Nevertheless, Sharon simultaneously began planning for a possible withdrawal by asking IDF officers to prepare for a theoretical exit from the area. During one meeting, Sharon reportedly lost his patience, and repeatedly cut off the officers, telling them, "everything you are saying I know already. I present the questions, you are experienced commanders and I want you to address the questions." According to Ha'aretz, Sharon also intimidated high-ranking army and GSS officials with the veiled threat that they could be blamed for the failure of the plan if they opposed it. The Myopia of Diplomacy: Losing Philadelphi Choosing to ignore the strategic reality, Israeli diplomatic advisers hypothesized that by withdrawing completely, the occupation of Gaza would be seen as having ended, along with the responsibility for the welfare of its population. As such, Israel eventually allowed Egypt to deploy additional forces and weapons along the Gaza-Egypt border (previously limited by the 1979 peace treaty) to halt the frenetic smuggling of terrorists and weapons. Unfortunately, the advisers chose to ignore the fact that Egypt had done little to prevent weapons smuggling during the extended Palestinian terrorist war against Israel. In August 2004, Israel Radio military correspondent Carmela Menashe reported Egypt “knows exactly what weapons are being smuggled and can prevent the smuggling of RPG's to the Gaza Strip. It is also believed that if Egypt wanted...[Katyusha rockets] would be smuggled in via the tunnels. Egypt uses the weapons smuggling as a measure against Israel." In August 2005, Yuval Shteinitz, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs & Defense Committee warned the agreement with Egypt to deploy its forces along the border with Gaza to halt smuggling was a strategic Trojan Horse that paved the way for a complete dismissal of the 1978 peace treaty with Cairo. The treaty limited Egyptian military deployment to a single division stationed up to 50 km. east of the Suez Canal. Civil police equipped with light weapons were permitted along the Egyptian side of the border with Israel - to a depth of 40 kilometers. According to Shteinitz, the move would return "the Egyptian military to the land, air and sea of the eastern Sinai. It doesn't matter that it is a relatively small force. It is a vital strategic mistake." Shteinitz also explained that "the opening shot [of a war] is very important, [as] Israel doesn't have any strategic depth, so the question of your army sitting 150 kilometers from the border or 15 km. from the border is very significant." Relinquishing Control of the Rafah Crossing On November 15, 2005, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice brokered a security arrangement covering the Rafah crossing. Under pressure from Javier Solana, the European Union's high representative for the common foreign and security policy, and James Wolfensohn, the Quartet's special envoy in Gaza, Sharon agreed to grant the Palestinian Authority control over the Gaza-Egypt border. A European Union "monitoring mission" was established to prevent the smuggling of weapons and terrorists. Rice said the agreement “intended to give the Palestinian people freedom to move, to trade, to live ordinary lives." WeaponSurvey asks: At what price? (Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan D. Halevi, "Philadelphi Route: A Strategic Failure for the Defense Establishment," JCPA Strategic Blog & Forum (Hebrew), October 22, 2006; Aluf Benn, "Mofaz Advises PM to Withdraw Almost Entirely from Gaza,” Ha'aretz, March 17, 2004; Aaron Lerner, "Background: Sharon Committed To Controlling Gaza Border But Clueless How," IMRA, March 29, 2004; "Text: The Disengagement Plan of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon," Ha'aretz, April 15, 2004; Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror and David Keyes, "Will a Gaza "Hamas-Stan" Become a Future Al-Qaeda Sanctuary?" JCPA Jerusalem Issue Brief, Vol. 4, No. 7, November 8, 2004; Amir Oren, "Inside Track / If Egypt Were Jordan," Ha'aretz, June 4, 2004; Gerald M. Steinberg, "Israel Must Control Gaza's Borders - All of Them," Jerusalem Post, July 2, 2006; Jonathan Lis, "IDF: Weapons Tunnels To Gaza Strip Dug From Egyptian Army Bases," Ha'aretz, August 11, 2003, as translated from Hebrew by IMRA; Arieh O'Sullivan "Steinitz: Egypt Wants to See Us Bleed," Jerusalem Post, September 2, 2004; "Israel: Egypt Knows Exactly What's Being Smuggled & Can Stop It," IMRA, August 24, 2004; "Anti-aircraft Missiles & Katyusha Rockets Held in Sinai for Palestinians - IDF Southern Gaza Brigade Commander Suarez," Ha'aretz, June 9, 2004; "IDF: Palestinians Trying to Smuggle Anti-Aircraft Missiles," Jerusalem Post, May 16, 2004; Ariel O'Sullivan, "Steinitz Slams Philadelphi Deal," Jerusalem Post, August 25, 2005). October 22, 2006:
- Cabinet Ministers Rafi Eitan (pensioner's party) and Eli Yishai (Shas) call for a military operation to retake control of Gaza's southern border and stop Palestinian terrorists from smuggling in weapons from neighboring Egypt. - Yom-Tov Samia, a reservist general on special assignment as deputy chief of the Southern Command (PADAM), calls for the 12-kilometer (7.5 mile) corridor (Philadelphi Route) to be retaken and its buffer zone widened. "The objective would be to prevent Hamas from replicating what happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon...This would have to take place in the coming days or weeks." - Defense Minister Amir Peretz notes the Israel Defense Forces will act against all Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip whenever a rocket is fired from the area. "There is no situation in which we examine who fired the rocket...The moment it's fired into Israel, the army will act against all terror organizations without differentiating who it belonged to." (Aluf Benn, Amos Harel, Avi Issacharoff and Gideon Alon, "Ministers Seek IDF Control Over Philadelphi Route," Ha'aretz, October 22, 2006). October 21, 2006:
Hamas terrorists "will abduct more soldiers if Israel does not release [Arab] prisoners," Palestinian Authority (PA) foreign minister Mahmoud Zahar tells a Gaza rally Saturday. ("Hamas Threatens More IDF Kidnappings," IsraelNationalNews, October 22, 2006). October 21, 2006:
- Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas brings Ismail Jaber, formerly a top security commander, out of retirement to lead security forces in the West Bank. Jaber's appointment comes a day after Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar, a top Hamas leader, said the Islamic group would strengthen its militia, known as the "Executive Force," in Fatah's West Bank stronghold. A Hamas official said they planned to recruit about 1,500 members there. Under Abbas' new plan, Jaber will take command of all West Bank security forces, except for three branches that fall under control of the Hamas-run Interior Ministry. In April 2005, Abbas forced Jaber and other senior officials into retirement as part of his efforts to root out corruption in the security forces. Jaber was suspected of putting thousands of fictitious names on his payrolls and pocketing the money. - Members of the Palestinian security forces fire in the air in Gaza City's main shopping district and burn tires near Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas' home, demanding payment of months overdue salaries on the eve of the Id al-Fitr holiday. Plumes of smoke waft from the area of Abbas' home in Gaza City. Protesters also stop cars from entering the area. The shots in downtown Gaza, packed with pre-holiday shoppers, scatter panicked crowds. The protesters said they are upset because only some members of the security forces have been paid ahead of the holiday. (Avi Issacharoff, "Abbas Taps Former Security Chief to Curb Hamas Buildup in West Bank," Ha'aretz, October 21, 2006). October 21, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists fire four Qassam rockets at the Israeli city of Sderot. (Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, "Four Qassam Rockets Launched from Gaza Hit Sderot Area," Ha'aretz, October 21, 2006). October 20, 2006:
Egyptian police announce the interception of a large arms shipment that was on its way to Gaza. The Egyptians arrest three Bedouins with 200 crates of assault rifles and ammunition in the village of Ballouza, 100 km from the border. The three confess to planning to use underground tunnels for weapons smuggling into Rafah. (Ezra Halevi, "Rockets Strike Western Negev Over Sabbath," IsraelNationalNews, October 21, 2006). October 20, 2006:
- Palestinian terrorists fire a Qassam rocket at the Israeli city of Sderot, lightly injuring one person. - Palestinian terrorists fire a Qassam rocket that impacts near a strategic facility in Ashkelon. - A total of 7 rockets are fired at Israeli targets on Friday. (Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, "One Person Hurt, Several Treated for Shock as Qassam Hits Sderot," Ha'aretz, October 20, 2006; Shmulik Hadad, "Qassam Lands Near Ashkelon Strategic Facility," YnetNews, October 20, 2006). October 20, 2006:
(Hamas) Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh emerges unscathed after a shooting attack on his convoy in central Gaza. One of the vehicles in his convoy is torched. Haniyeh had just finished making a speech at a Gaza mosque, where he said Hamas would reject any moves by Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to call fresh elections or sack the Islamist government as a way to break a political deadlock. ("Haniyah Unscathed After Militants Open Fire on his Convoy in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 20, 2006). October 20, 2006:
There are growing concerns in the IDF that Hamas and other terrorist groups may be planning, possibly independently, to carry out attacks against one of the kibbutzim near the Gaza Strip border. The IDF Southern Command (PADAM) assesses that at least 10 (infiltration) tunnels have been excavated in close proximity to the fence separating the Gaza Strip from the western Negev. (Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, "Army Fears Gaza Terror Groups Plan Attacks on Kibbutzim," Ha'aretz, October 20, 2006). October 19, 2006:
Maj.-Gen. (res.) Ya'acov Amidror assesses the ongoing IDF operation in the Gaza Strip:
October 19, 2006:
The IDF identifies a total of 13 weapons smuggling tunnels along the Egypt-PA border. According to Lt. Col. Yossi Drori, commander of the Givati brigade operating in the area, "There are hundreds of tunnels along the Philadelphi Route, and we see a move by terrorist organizations to advance their construction." ("Five More Smuggling Tunnels Discovered," IsraelNationalNews, October 19, 2006). October 19, 2006:
- Senior IDF officers fear an increase of sporadic Palestinian sniper attacks in Judea and Samaria (West Bank), as terrorists have failed to execute large attacks in the center of the country. "A lone terrorist with a single weapon sets out to attack, shoots several bullets and escapes..." - Palestinian terrorists trained in Syria and Iran have returned to the Gaza Strip to prepare for war against Israel. ("IDF Fears Increase in Terrorist Sniping Attacks," IsraelNationalNews, October 19, 2006; "TV Report: Terrorists in PA Trained in Iran and Syria," IsraelNationalNews, October 19, 2006). October 19, 2006:
- An Israeli motorist is targeted in a Palestinian shooting attack between the Trans-Samaria Highway and the community of Peduel. The victim is in moderate condition. - Palestinian terrorists in the northern Gaza Strip fire two Qassam rockets at the western Negev. ("Shooting Attack Near Peduel," IsraelNationalNews, October 19, 2006; "Kassam Rockets Land in Open Fields," IsraelNationalNews, October 19, 2006). October 19, 2006:
Masked Palestinian gunmen kill a Hamas terrorist in Nablus. Hundreds of Hamas supporters flock to the morgue where Taher's body is held, chanting "Dahlan, you traitor." Fatah denies responsibility for the shooting. ("Hamas Gunman Killed in Nablus, Fatah Suspected of Involvement," Reuters, October 19, 2006). October 18, 2006:
IDF ground forces continue operating in the southern Gaza Strip, pushing four kilometers into Palestinian Authority territory and uncovering five weapons-smuggling tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. The IDF intends to demolish the tunnels. (Amos Harel, Gideon Alon, and Yoav Stern, "IDF Troops Push Further into Southern Gaza, Uncover Tunnels," Ha'aretz, October 18, 2006). October 18, 2006:
The IDF launches a major operation in the southern Gaza Strip along the Philadelphi Route. The operation is taking place approximately 1.5 kilometers inside Palestinian territory. Infantry forces from the Givati Brigade have entered the area near the Rafah border crossing and are searching for tunnels with the help of specialists from the Bedouin Scout Battalion. Two tunnels are identified and one of them is destroyed in a controlled explosion. Ashraf al Muashar, one of the masterminds behind the abduction of Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit, is among four terrorists killed by IDF troops in the Gaza Strip. IDF sources note there are plans to broaden the operation in Philadelphi to locate more tunnels. In recent months, 15 tunnels were discovered and destroyed in the Gaza Strip. A number of the tunnels were used for smuggling from Egypt, but others were meant to aid Palestinian terrorists infiltrate into Israel. (Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "IDF Holds First Philadelphi Raid Since 2005 Pullout," Ha'aretz, October 18, 2006; Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "Hamas: Mastermind of Shalit's Abduction Among 4 Killed in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 18, 2006). October 18, 2006:
Ghazi Hamad, a senior figure in Hamas and spokesman for the Hamas-led government, publishes an article in Al-Ayyam condemning internal violence and questioning whether it has become a "Palestinian disease." Hamad notes he is disturbed by growing factionalism in the Palestinian territories, including recent deadly clashes between rival political movements. "Has violence become a culture implanted in our bodies and our flesh? We have surrendered to it until it has become the master and is obeyed everywhere - in the house, the neighborhood, the family, the clan, the faction, and the university." ("Hamas Spokesman Questions if Violence is Palestinian 'Disease'," Reuters, October 17, 2006). October 17, 2006:
- IDF forces shoot and kill three Palestinians in two separate incidents in the West Bank town of Kabatiya. Two Palestinians throwing stones at IDF soldiers patrolling the area are shot and killed. One Palestinian is killed during an exchange of fire. - Palestinian terrorists fire at IDF forces in northern Gaza. Fire is returned. - Undercover IDF troops attempt to arrest 24-year-old A'adel Abu Rish, wanted for his terrorist activities in Fatah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). He was also suspected of involvement in shooting and bombing attacks. Abu Rish was traveling in a vehicle driven by his cousin, 22-year-old Firas Abu Rish, and was armed with a Kalashnikov assault rifle. Soldiers open fire on the vehicle when the two try to flee, killing both men. ("3 Palestinians Attacking IDF Patrols Killed in Kabatiya," Jerusalem Post, October 17, 2006; "IDF Soldiers Foil Shooting Attack in Gaza," IsraelNationalNews, October 17, 2006; "Four Palestinians Killed by IDF Troops in West Bank," Ha'aretz, October 16, 2006). October 17, 2006:
The IAF targets Qassam rocket launchers in the northern Gaza Strip. ("Air Force Targets Kassam Rocket Launchers," IsraelNationalNews, October 17, 2006). October 17, 2006:
Hamas announces it has completed preparations for a possible all-out conflict with Israel should the IDF launch a ground offensive inside Gaza. Abu Ubaida, a spokesman for the terrorist group, warns that "the fighters of the al-Qassam brigades will not have mercy on your cowardly soldiers. Your destroyed tanks will become the eternal testimony of your failure and of your running away from the Strip...We have the tools and ammunition to deal with the Zionist enemy and it is our right to have all the weapons means to defend our people in light of the enemy's intention to hurt civilians and innocents. We have a right to any arms we can get." "We are ready, willing and able...we have completed our preparations to teach the Zionist enemy a lesson that he, with Allah's help, will never forget. This attack will become a nightmare that will haunt the Zionists everywhere. Your failure in Gaza will repeat itself, but this time the lesson will be much harder. Our fighters are already lying in wait to ambush the enemy. If the enemy thinks that invading Gaza and confronting Hamas is a simple thing, then he is living in an illusion." (Ali Waked, "Hamas: Israel's Tanks Will be Destroyed," YnetNews, October 16, 2006). October 16, 2006:
IDF officers conclude that Hamas is planning to create a "balance of terror" with Israel in the Gaza Strip, in order to deter the Israel Defense Forces from making a major ground forces incursion into the territory. Since January 2006, Palestinian terrorists have smuggled more than 20 tons of explosives, anti-aircraft and antitank missiles into the Gaza Strip. According to senior IDF officers, Hamas is working to improve its offensive capabilities, with an emphasis on Qassam and Katyusha rockets, while simultaneously establishing a solid defensive position to prevent the IDF from entering built-up areas within the Strip. The defensive preparations are aimed mainly at Gaza's cities, and are being carried out mainly by Hamas's popular army, the Murabitan. Arms smuggling is also continuing. Recently, Hamas took possession of a shipment of dozens of Russian Concourse antitank missiles. These relatively precise missiles have a range of 4.5 kilometers, similar to those used by Hezbollah during the war. IDF officers believe that Hamas will try to smuggle in hundreds more. (Amos Harel, "Hamas Readying for War with Explosives, Arms," Ha'aretz, October 16, 2006). October 16, 2006:
- Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip fire at least two Qassam rockets at the western Negev, one of which impacts next to a home in the town of Sderot, lightly wounding one person in the leg. Seven others are treated for shock. - Another Qassam lands near Kibbutz Nir-Am (western Negev). - An Islamic Jihad terrorist is killed and another seriously wounded when the explosive device they are preparing near Khan Yunis prematurely explodes. (Gideon Alon, "Qassam Lands Next to House in Sderot, Lightly Wounding Man," Ha'aretz, October 16, 2006). October 16, 2006:
Hamas receives deliveries of (Soviet-origin) SA-7 surface-to-air missiles meant to disrupt IAF operations over the Gaza Strip. The missiles arrive in the Gaza Strip via Egypt. ("Hamas Renews Orders of SAMs," Middle East Newsline, October 16, 2006). October 15, 2006:
- IDF Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz, head of the IDF intelligence research department, confirms that Hamas is smuggling advanced anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles into the Gaza Strip -- altering tactical military conditions. Baidatz assesses Hamas plans to use the anti-aircraft missiles against Israeli fighter planes in the context of future conflicts, and predicts Hamas will eventually target civilian aircraft as well. The intelligence chief warns the entire Israeli aviation industry will be imperiled if a solution to protect the planes is not found. Note: Palestinian terrorists are attempting to smuggle advanced projectiles into Judea and Samaria as well (West Bank) – putting Ben Gurion International Airport within missile range. - According to Israeli military sources, Russian-made Kornet anti-tank missiles may have been smuggled into the Gaza Strip by terror cells associated with Hizballah. The Kornet was used by Hizbullah during the recent war in Lebanon with fatal results. The missiles, which reached Lebanon after they were sold by Russia to Syria and Iran, are capable of penetrating a meter-and-a-half of reinforced armor. The missile's warhead drills a hole in the armor and after penetrating, releases a liquid-base explosives that detonates in the tank's interior. - The deputy head of the Shin Bet (GSS) reveals that a number of military experts have been smuggled into the Gaza Strip to train Hamas forces. Hizballah combat methods are taught by a number of Syrian instructors. ("IDF Intelligence: Hamas has Anti-Aircraft Missiles," Jerusalem Post, October 15, 2006; Herb Keinon and Yaakov Katz, "IDF: Military Picture in Gaza Changing," Jerusalem Post, October 15, 2006; Ezra HaLevi, "Hamas Obtains Anti-Aircraft Weapons in Gaza," IsraelNationalNews, October 15, 2006). October 15, 2006:
- Palestinian terrorists fire at an IDF position near Ramallah. IDF forces return fire. - A female Palestinian terrorist armed with a knife is apprehended near the community of Bat Ayin in the Gush Etzion region, south of Jerusalem. - The IAF targets Palestinian rocket launchers in the Gaza Strip. ("Arabs Fire at Army Post Near Ramallah," IsraelNationalNews, October 15, 2006; "Armed Terrorist Caught in Gush Etzion," IsraelNationalNews, October 15, 2006; "IDF Attacks Gaza Rocket Launchers," IsraelNationalNews, October 15, 2006). October 14, 2006:
Hamas plans to attack American targets in the Middle East. According to a Time Magazine report, Hamas officials discussed the idea during underground meetings in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The terrorist organization is "running out of patience" with the US and wants to retaliate. "The US has become very hostile to the Palestinians...We shouldn't stand by idly while the Americans are plotting against us." ("Hamas Debating an Attack on US Targets in the Middle East," Jerusalem Post, October 14, 2006). October 14, 2006:
The IAF carries out strikes in the Gaza Strip aimed at halting Qassam rocket fire on southern Israel. - An IAF strike targets and kills an Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terrorist. - Another strike kills six Hamas terrorists east of Gaza City. (Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "Seven Gunmen Killed in IAF Missile Strikes in Gaza," Jerusalem Post, October 14, 2006). October 14, 2006:
- IDF forces kill an Islamic Jihad terrorist in Kabatiya, near Jenin. - IDF forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip after 72 hours of heavy air and ground operations during which a total of 15 terrorists were killed in 'Operation Rain Man.' ("Islamic Jihad Member Killed in Kabatiya," Jerusalem Post, October 14, 2006). October 14, 2006:
Hamas interior minister Said Siyam signs a series of military pacts with Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, his Iranian counterpart. The pacts are designed to transform Hamas’ military wing, the Ezz e-Din al Qassam, into a crack operational arm of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and Gaza into a second Lebanon. Tehran has committed to training Hamas’ rapid deployment force of 6,500 men in Hizballah combat tactics, with an emphasis on missiles, especially the anti-tank variety which were used with devastating effect against Israeli tanks in the Lebanon War. The force will be sent over in batches for six-week courses at Revolutionary Guards installations in southern Iran. ("Tehran Arms Hamas for a Double-Barreled War Option and Gaza as Second Lebanon," DebkaFile, October 14, 2006). October 13, 2006:
The pace of weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip is increasing. A senior IDF officer warns that terror groups are arming at an "unprecedented" pace. Certain officers are calling for a re-evaluation of the IDF's strategy in Gaza. Despite IDF activity along the security fence in recent days and non-stop air strikes on Gaza weapons depots, terror groups imported more than two tons of TNT via tunnels excavated under the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border. Aside from the usual variety of explosives, light weapons and ammunition, approximately 20 advanced anti-tank missiles have found their way into Gaza. Palestinian terrorists fired several anti-tank missiles at IDF forces during ongoing operations in Gaza, but failed to inflict casualties. ("Anti-Tank Missiles Smuggled into Gaza," Jerusalem Post, October 13, 2006). October 13, 2006:
IAF aircraft fire missiles at Palestinian terrorists east of Gaza City, killing 6 and wounding 10. Three of the dead are identified as members of Hamas. More than a dozen IDF tanks move into the area. Security officials report exchanges of fire between the IDF and Palestinian terrorists. An IDF spokesperson said the incident began when an anti-tank missile was fired at an Israeli bulldozer. (Amos Harel, Mijal Grinberg and Yoav Stern, "Six Gunmen Killed, 10 Hurt in IAF Strike in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 13, 2006). October 13, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists fire two Qassam rockets towards the Israeli city of Sderot, moderately wounding three people. (Mijal Grinberg, Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "2 Qassams Land in Sderot Area, Lightly Wounding Three People," Ha'aretz, October 13, 2006). October 13, 2006:
- Two Palestinians are killed and at least seven injured in an IAF missile strike on the Gaza City home of a Hamas leader. An IDF spokesman confirms the air strike targeted the house of a Hamas commander, Sharaf Farwana, in the Sajaiyeh section of Gaza City near the border with Israel. Farwana was involved in attacks against Israel and supplying weapons to Hamas terrorists. - Hamas vows revenge. "In light of the ugly crimes in Khan Yunis and the northern Gaza Strip, we will bombard and strike in every place, north and south. The response will be powerful and will cause the earth to tremble. The enemy must now wait patiently for our actions..." - Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Meshal calls Israel a "cancer that must be pulled out by its roots." "The time has come for the Palestinians who have been scattered throughout the world return to their homes, and Arabs and Muslims should lend a hand to impose this on the world..." (Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "Eight Palestinians Killed in Two Separate IAF Strikes in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 13, 2006; Yoav Stern, "Hamas: IDF Will Face Catastrophe if Invades Gaza Strip," Ha'aretz, October 13, 2006). October 12, 2006:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declares that, "Palestine is the front line of the Islamic nations in their struggle against the aggressive superpowers." Ahamdinejad also tells Hamas official Sa'eed Seeyam that, "Iran has no problem transferring its successes and experience in any field to the Hamas government." Seeyam notes that "Muslims across the world should take pride in the victory of Islamic resistance in Lebanon, that of the popular Hamas government in Palestine and remarkable success of Iran in various domains." (Ezra HaLevi, "Ahmadinejad: Palestine is the Front Line," IsraelNationalNews, October 12, 2006). October 12, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists fire a Qassam rocket at Sderot, hitting a power line and plunging the city into darkness. ("Kassam Attack Plunges Sderot Into Darkness," IsraelNationalNews, October 12, 2006DebkaFile). October 12, 2006:
The Fatah terrorist group receives new shipments of assault rifles and ammunition. Palestinian sources note that Fatah units in the West Bank have received thousands of U.S.-origin M-16 assault rifles as part of Israeli-approved Western aid to forces loyal to Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. "The weapons are meant for PA forces but they end up with Fatah in the war against Hamas..." ("Fatah Units in West Bank Received Thousands of U.S.-Origin M-16 Assault Rifles," Middle East Newsline, October 12, 2006; DebkaFile). October 12, 2006:
- IDF forces kill 4 Palestinian terrorists during an operation the Gaza Strip. - IDF forces operating in Nablus (West Bank) identify and fire at an armed gunman. ("Gaza Fighting Continues During the Night," IsraelNationalNews, October 12, 2006; "Soldiers Fire at Armed Gunmen in Shechem," October 12, 2006; YeshaNews). October 11, 2006:
Scenario Projection
October 11, 2006:
Fatah operatives storm the Nablus house where kidnapped US student Michael Leyton-Philips is held. Phillips is released shortly thereafter. Earlier, a masked member of the group Ansar Assuna terrorist group demanded the "release of all imprisoned women and minors." He said Phillips was abducted to "confront the American war on Islam." (Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "Palestinian Militants Release U.S. Hostage Abducted in Nablus," Ha'aretz, October 11, 2006; DebkaFile). October 11, 2006:
The Bush administration is investing $10 million to expand Yasser Arafat’s old Force 17 from 3,500 to 6,500 men and equip them with arms, a fleet of vehicles (some armored) and communications systems. The US has also hired Palestinian contractors to upgrade the Jericho facility as a central training base, while is slated to become the PA's most modern military installation. Palestinian security officers will act as instructors under the guidance of British military personnel. ("DEBKAfile: US Consul-General in Jerusalem outlines all-out effort to boost Mahmoud Abbas, blames Hamas for the Palestinian people’s suffering," DebkaFile, October 11, 2006). October 11, 2006:
- The IAF targets the Gaza Strip home of well known Hamas member, Mariam Farhat. According to the IDF, the house concealed a weapons factory. "There was an air strike on a weapons storage and manufacturing facility." - Palestinian terrorists fire at IDF forces in the northern Gaza Strip, damaging a military vehicle. (Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "IAF strikes Gaza home of Hamas lawmaker Umm Nidal," Ha'aretz, October 11, 2006; "PA Arabs Open Fire at IDF Troops in Gaza, No Injuries," IsraelNationalNews, October 11, 2006). October 10, 2006:
- IDF forces target two armed Palestinians spotted approaching their position on the border fence east of Dahaniya in the southern Gaza Strip. - Palestinian terrorists fire an anti-tank rocket at IDF troops operating in the northern Gaza Strip. - IDF forces at the Rihan checkpoint arrest two young Hamas terrorists with pipe bombs. The terrorists intended to carry out a suicide bombing attack near the West Bank city of Jenin. - IDF special forces operating in Ramallah arrest a wanted Fatah operative. Troops are fired upon during the operation, apparently from a terrorist in a nearby house. (Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "IDF Troops Kill Armed Palestinian Man Near Border Fence in Southern Gaza Strip," Ha'aretz, October 10, 2006; Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, "IAF strikes Gaza home of Hamas lawmaker Umm Nidal," Ha'aretz, October 11, 2006). October 9, 2006:
- A Palestinian terrorist is shot and killed at the Hawara checkpoint (south of Nablus) after attempting to stab IDF soldiers manning the position. - IDF forces apprehend an Islamic Jihad operative near the Nur a-Shams Refugee Camp east of Tulkarem. - Palestinians shoot at a passing Israeli car near Kafr Asawiya, north of Ramallah. - The IDF targets a Palestinian terrorist carrying a rocket launcher in northern Gaza. (Efrat Weiss, "Nablus: Soldier Kills Palestinian After Stab Attempt," YnetNews, October 9, 2006; "Islamic Jihad Operative Arrested," Jerusalem Post, October 9, 2006). October 9, 2006:
YeshaNews reports that Palestinian terrorists have fired 800 Qassam rockets at Israel since January 1, 2006. (YeshaNews, October 7, 2006). October 9, 2006:
Sixteen terrorist groups are operating in the Gaza Strip and using weapons to obtain public services. According to an International Crisis Group report, Gaza Palestinians are "resorting to arms in order to attain what money no longer can buy." ("16 Terror Groups Operating in Gaza," IsraelNationalNews, October 9, 2006). October 9, 2006:
The Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip assembles an organized military force of approximately 7,500 soldiers. The army is comprised of several specialized units, including:
Hamas claims its Al-Kassam military wing has a force of more than 10,000 fighters. According to Hamas spokesman Abu Obaida, "If the Israeli enemy thinks al-Kassam has [only] 7,000 fighters, we tell them we have twice as much as this number." Obadia also notes that Hamas has acquired Russian-made Katyusha rockets and continues to manufacture and smuggle weapons. (Alex Fishman, "Tunnels Feed New Hamas Army," YnetNews, October 7, 2006; "Hamas Claims Army of More Than 10,000," IsraelNationalNews, October 8, 2006). October 8, 2006:
Al Qaeda (Palestine) claims responsibility for detonating a bomb at a Gaza Strip coffee house. No injuries are reported, but the building sustains heavy damage. Three weeks ago, the terrorist network headed by Osama Bin Laden took responsibility for the assasination of a senior PA intelligence officer and four bodyguards. ("Al Qaeda Claims Anti-PA Attack," IsraelNationalNews, October 8, 2006). October 8, 2006:
Two Israeli arms firms are developing systems that would use miniature rockets to shoot down Hizballah and Palestinian rockets. Rafael's "David's Shield" and Israel Military Industries' (IMI) "Magic Shield" would use radars to detect incoming Katyusha-sized rockets as well as their launchers. The latter data would be used to direct retaliatory fire at rocket crews. Security sources note the designs employed by David's Shield and Magic Shield are modeled on Arrow II, an Israeli system that uses guided missiles to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles at atmospheric altitudes. Arrow is considered Israel's main bulwark against any future war with arch-foe Iran. Israel's Defense Ministry has formally commissioned David's Shield, seeing it and Arrow as eventual "bookends" of a defense network covering all major missile and rocket threats. Filling the middle would be U.S.-supplied Patriot batteries, which are designed to tackle mid-altitude ballistic threats. In parallel, the Defense Ministry may revive the Nautilus, a laser-beam missile-killer that its Mafat unit developed with U.S. arms firm Northrop Grumman in the 1990s but shelved for budget reasons. Israeli media have also reported Defense Ministry interest in Skyshield, a rapid-fire cannon made by U.S. arms firm Lockheed Martin that could shred incoming rockets mid-air. (Dan Williams, "Israel Seeks to Shoot Down Rockets with Rockets," Reuters, October 8, 2006). October 8, 2006:
The IDF and the GOI discuss a potential ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in response to ongoing Palestinian missile strikes. "If there is no significant military operation that targets the Palestinian missile infrastructure, then there will be significant attacks on Israeli cities in 2007." ("Israel Mulls Gaza Invasion," Middle East Newsline, October 5, 2006). October 8, 2006:
Fatah terrorists hurl an explosive device and fire at IDF forces in the Nablus Balata refugee camp. IDF forces return fire, killing one terrorist and wounding three others. ("IDF Shoots, Kills Al Aqsa Martyrs` Brigades Militant in Nablus," Ha'aretz, October 8, 2006). October 7, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists fire a Qassam rocket at the Israeli town of Sderot, just missing mayor Eli Moyal's house. Several buildings sustain damage from the impact. ("Kassam Rocket Lands Near Sderot Mayor's Home," Jerusalem Post, October 7, 2006). October 6, 2006:
Palestinian (Hamas) Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh vows that Hamas will never recognize Israel. Haniyeh notes that Hamas is prepared to accept a [temporary] long-term cease-fire [hudna] if Israel retreats to pre-1967 cease fire lines. ("Haniyeh: No Recognition of Israel," Associated Press, October 6, 2006). October 6, 2006:
A high-ranking IDF officer reveals that Hamas is establishing sleeper terror cells, rebuilding its forces and stocking up on advanced weaponry in the West Bank. According to the officer, the weapons and cells could be used against the West Bank-based Fatah infrastructure as part of the ongoing battles taking place mainly in the Gaza Strip, but would most probably be used for terror activity. The officer also notes that terror groups are "studying" the war in Lebanon and trying to adopt Hizbullah fighting tactics - such as burying bombs in the ground and laying ambushes nearby - for fighting against the IDF in the West Bank. Hizbullah is still active in the West Bank and is behind the transfer of major amounts of cash to terror groups, particularly Islamic Jihad. While terror cells are still far from crossing the technological threshold that would allow them to manufacture and fire high-grade Qassam rockets at the Sharon region from the West Bank, it is "only a matter of time" before they achieve that capability. (Yaakov Katz, "IDF: West Bank Terror Could Re-emerge," Jerusalem Post, October 6, 2006). October 6, 2006:
The US moves to bolster Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas by proposing a plan to improve the Palestinian president's elite security force and expand its authorities in the Gaza Strip. The $20 million plan calls for training Abbas' presidential guard and upgrading Karni Crossing, the main cargo crossing between Gaza and Israel. The presidential guard would oversee the Palestinian side of the crossing, which has repeatedly been closed over the past year due to Israeli security alerts. Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton, the US security coordinator in the West Bank and Gaza, is working out the plan, which was discussed during US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's meeting with Abbas in the West Bank on Wednesday. ("US Offers Plan for Abbas Security Boost," Associated Press, October 5, 2006). October 5, 2006:
A group calling itself al-Qaida in Palestine posts a Web video denouncing those who "work in the service of the Jews." The 5-minute video contains previously-aired clips of Osama bin Laden and slain al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, as well as footage of a masked man sitting alongside an automatic weapon and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher. "My speech is directed against... those who announce blasphemy against Islam and who are allied with enemies of God and religion, and work in the service of the Jews and the Christians," the man said. The man on the video identifies himself as Abu Hafs, a field commander for the group al-Qaida in Palestine. He appeared to criticize Palestinian leaders without naming them, along with Palestinians he viewed as not doing enough for their national cause. "They own investments, companies and real estate inside and outside the country while the people are starving and without clothes," he said. Big salaries had lured some Palestinians to cooperate with Israel "like a herd of sheep," he said. Speaking directly to Palestinians, the man said: "In every crisis, your leaders flee abroad and hand you over to killing and horror." The man on the video threatened "a severe war (against) anyone who carries a weapon defending a traitor, an informer or a security coordinator." "He will be a target for our swords if he does not repent and return to the people's ranks.... Be aware not to accompany them to death," he warned. ("Al-Qaida in Palestine' Posts Video," Reuters, October 4, 2006). October 5, 2006:
- A Palestinian terrorist kills a Fatah operative in the Gaza Strip. A Hamas supporter is critically wounded in a separate incident. - Palestinian terrorists shoot a Fatah police officer in the Gaza Strip. ("Gunman Kills Fatah Man in Gaza, Hamas Man Critically Wounded," Reuters, October 5, 2006). October 5, 2006:
- Palestinian terrorists fire two Qassam rockets towards the western Negev. - Palestinian terrorists hurl several explosive devices and fire at IDF soldiers on maneuvers in Kabatiya, south of Jenin, and Nablus. ("Two Kassams Fall in Western Negev," IsraelNationalNews, October 5, 2006; "Explosives Thrown at IDF Soldiers Near Shechem," IsraelNationalNews, October 5, 2006). October 5, 2006:
- The IAF targets a car in the southern Gaza Strip, killing two Islamic Jihad terrorists planning an attack. - The IAF targets a vehicle carrying Fatah terrorists in Gaza. ("IAF Strike Targets Car in Gaza, Killing Two Islamic Jihad Militants," Ha'aretz, October 5, 2006). October 4, 2006:
The Hamas terrorist group prepares for a potential armed confrontation with Fatah in the West Bank. At least 600 rifles and ammunition have been distributed to Hamas operatives. Rearmament efforts are being overseen from Damascus by Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal who believes the group should prepare for a possible dissolution of Palestinian parliament. (Ali Waked, "Abbas Hints at Elections, Hamas Arming," YnetNews, October 4, 2006). October 4, 2006:
An Israeli businessman escapes a kidnapping attempt by Palestinian terrorists near the community of Upper Modi'in in the West Bank. The man said six armed Palestinians arrived at his concrete factory. The man drew his gun and opened fire, hitting one of his would-be abductors. (Jonathan Lis, "Israeli Man Says he Escaped Abduction by W. Bank Militants," Ha'aretz, October 4, 2006). October 3, 2006:
The IAF targets a vehicle transporting an Islamic Jihad terrorist cell. The cell was responsible for rocket attacks against Sderot and other locations in Israel. ("IDF Targets Islamic Jihad Vehicle," IDF Spokesperson's Office, October 3, 2006). October 2, 2006:
Palestinian terrorists fire two Qassam rockets from northern Gaza towards Israel. One impacts near Alumim in the western Negev and the other in close proximity to the Givim Junction. (Shmulik Hadad, "2 Qassam Rockets Fired at Sderot on Yom Kippur," YnetNews, October 2, 2006; "Kassam Rocket Attacks on Yom Kippur," IsraelNationalNews, October 2, 2006). October 2, 2006:
- Three Palestinian are killed and 15 others wounded in fresh clashes between Hamas and Fatah in the Gaza Strip. At Gaza City's main hospital, a 20-minute gun battle erupts when the family of one of those killed Sunday arrives to retrieve his body. - Hamas operatives withdraw from the streets of the Gaza Strip and return to their normal posts after nine people were killed and at least 100 injured in clashes with Fatah-aligned forces Sunday. - The fighting between rival Palestinian factions spreads to the West Bank. In the northern West Bank town of Nablus, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party supporters shoot at Palestinian Deputy Prime Minister Nasser Shaer's bodyguards as they ride in a government car, injuring two of them. 7 people are injured in the ensuing gun battle. In the West Bank town of Jericho, Fatah gunmen fire at a Palestinian man who refuses to close his shop, in violation of the general strike enforced by Fatah. His condition is listed as critical. ("Palestinian Tensions Flare Again; 2 Killed," Reuters, October 2, 2006; Avi Issacharoff, "One Killed and 15 Hurt in Fresh Hamas-Fatah Fighting in Gaza," Ha'aretz, October 2, 2006). October 1, 2006:
A day of violence between Fatah and Hamas terrorists kills eight Palestinians, including a 15 year old child. The fighting begins in the southern Gaza town of Khan Yunis, where dozens of police gather outside the Bank of Palestine to demand payment of salaries they did not recieve since Hamas took power in January. Hamas sends its 3,500-member militia into Gaza's streets to quash the protests. They order the protesters to disperse and open fire. The protestors responded by shooting in the air. Firefights then erupt in northern Gaza. The violence spreads to the parliament building in Gaza City, where security officers and civil servants are protesting. The protesters hurl stones at nearby Hamas members, who open fire, launch anti-tank rockets and lob grenades. Hamas and Fatah operatives then trade fire on two major streets nearby, and gunmen from both sides take positions on rooftops. The clashes later spill over to an area near the president's residence. Hamas operatives scramble up to the rooftop of the nearby Agriculture Ministry and fire rocket-propelled grenades and rifles at the presidential guard. A gun battle between rival forces also erupts in a Gaza hospital, wounding at least four people. In response to the violence, Fatah protesters in the West Bank city of Ramallah march to the Cabinet building pelted it with stones, break in and light the second floor on fire. They then throw files out the windows. A second building in the compound is also set ablaze. Forced out by the flames and smoke, the Fatah operatives move to the nearby Education Ministry, torching the minister's car on the way. They then vandalize the offices of a Hamas newspaper. In the northern West Bank city of Nablus, dozens of Fatah gunmen fire in the air, close a major road with burning tires, and threaten to retaliate for any Hamas violence in Gaza with attacks in the West Bank. (Avi Issacharoff, "Abbas: Civil War is 'Red Line'; Haniyeh Calls For truce," Ha'aretz, October 1, 2006). October 1, 2006:
The Israeli defense establishment declares a state of high alert ahead of Yom Kippur. There are currently 17 specific terror warnings, including potential suicide bombings, shootings, Qassam rocket strikes and kidnappings. ("Yom Kippur: Full Closure in Territories," YnetNews, September 30, 2006). October 1, 2006:
The IAF targets two Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terrorists in the southern Gaza Strip town of Rafah. ("IAF Kills 2 Al-Aqsa Operatives in Gaza," Jerusalem Post, October 1, 2006). October 1, 2006:
Egyptian police identify a weapons-dealing ring that sold guns and grenades in Egypt's Sinai peninsula and whose members included Palestinians and Egyptian security officials. An unamed source told Reuters that "Nine members of this network were caught red-handed while selling weapons and explosives on one of the streets in al-Arish to a group of Bedouin and Palestinians." The source said police seized hand grenades, an assault rifle and ammunition when they made the arrests in al-Arish, a town on Egypt's Mediterranean coast with a mixed population of settled Bedouin, people from the Nile valley and assimilated people of Palestinian origin. Egypt's state news agency MENA, quoting security sources, put the number of arrests at two, both police officers. It said the officers were suspected of selling ammunition, not weapons, and denied reports of Palestinian involvement. Egypt has laid the blame for the Sinai bombings on local militants including Bedouin with militant Muslim views. ("Sources: Egyptians, Palestinians Busted in Sinai Arms Ring," Reuters, October 1, 2006). October 1, 2006:
Scenario Projection
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